The Pacific right now
The Pacific is running warm
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that begins with unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific — and ends up shifting rainfall, drought and heat around the world. This page follows the signal in three steps, using the same official data scientists use.
Every colour below is a real satellite reading of the sea surface against normal for the time of year: red is warmer, blue is colder, sage is land. El Niño's signature is a tongue of red along the equator, spreading west from South America — in a La Niña year the same stretch runs blue. Press play to watch the last two years, and touch any patch of ocean for its exact reading.
Sept 2026 month to date (through 2026-09-23) Niño 3.4 avg +2.93 °C
Evidence & limitations
- Source
- NOAA OISST v2.1 via NOAA CoastWatch ERDDAP
- Last updated
- 2026-10-12
- Data type
- observed
- Limitations
-
- Monthly values are a mean of ~6 sampled daily fields per month, not NOAA’s official monthly mean product — differences are small because SST anomalies evolve slowly, but the two are not identical.
- The most recent month is usually incomplete: OISST publishes with roughly two weeks of latency.
- 2° cells are for visual and educational use, not precise local analysis; the authoritative ENSO index remains NOAA ONI (see the ENSO status card).
Signal 1 of 3 · The ocean
Warm water is the engine
El Niño begins in the sea. Scientists watch one patch of the Pacific — the dashed "Niño 3.4" box on the map above — and track how far its temperature sits above or below normal. Sustained readings of +0.5 °C or more are the threshold for El Niño; −0.5 °C or below, La Niña. These panels show the official reading right now, and where NOAA's forecasters expect it to go next.
ENSO status
+2.16°C Very strong El Niño ONI, JAS 2026 (3-month running mean)
The signal is strengthening. Conditions are consistent with a very strong El Niño. The Niño 3.4 index has been strengthening over the last three-month period.
Evidence & limitations
- Source
- NOAA CPC / ONI
- Last updated
- 28 October 2026
- Data type
- observed
- Limitations
-
- ONI is a 3-month running mean; short-term weekly fluctuations are smoothed out.
- Classification bands follow the standard NOAA ONI scale (see docs/methodology.md).
ENSO forecast probability
El Niño Advisory issued 8 October 2026
El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).
Next official update expected 12 November 2026.
Evidence & limitations
- Source
- NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
- Last updated
- 28 October 2026
- Data type
- forecast
- Limitations
-
- This is the official alert status and synopsis, not a structured probability breakdown — IRI/CPC do not publish a clean El Niño/Neutral/La Niña percentage table for free access.
- The quoted statement (if shown) is whichever specific probability the discussion happened to lead with, not necessarily a full picture across every lead time.
- Forecast uncertainty increases the further out the period.
Niño 3.4 trend
+2.16°C latest reading, 2026-JAS
Evidence & limitations
- Source
- NOAA ONI (CPC)
- Last updated
- 28 October 2026
- Data type
- observed
- Limitations
-
- Threshold bands are drawn at ±0.5 / ±1.0 / ±1.5 / ±2.0°C per the standard ONI scale.
- Recent months may be revised as more observations come in.
Signal 2 of 3 · The atmosphere
The sky has to join in
Warm water alone is not an El Niño. The atmosphere has to respond too: the trade winds that normally push warm water westward ease off, and air pressure see-saws across the Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) measures that see-saw. Only when ocean and atmosphere reinforce each other does the pattern lock in and start steering weather far beyond the tropics — this panel checks whether that is happening yet.
Atmosphere check
-21.4 Coupled SOI, Sep 2026 (monthly)
SOI is -21.4 while ONI is +2.16 — opposite in sign and both past the weak threshold, which is what typically sustains an ENSO episode rather than it fading quickly.
Evidence & limitations
- Source
- Australian BOM SOI
- Last updated
- 28 October 2026
- Data type
- observed
- Limitations
-
- Coupling classification follows the rule validated against real data in docs/methodology.md.
- SOI is one indicator of atmospheric response; it does not capture the full atmospheric picture.
Signal 3 of 3 · On the ground
What it can mean where you live
This is where a planet-sized signal becomes local. El Niño does not cause any single drought or storm, but it loads the dice: historically, it has often been associated with drier conditions in the east of both of New Zealand's main islands. The card below shows NIWA's current official outlook.
Regional impact — New Zealand
Typical El Niño pattern: Strong El Niño events have historically been associated with drier, windier conditions on the east coast of both islands and increased drought risk in eastern regions, alongside wetter conditions in the west.
Current observation: Very strong El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen further. El Niño’s influence on New Zealand’s weather patterns is becoming increasingly apparent and is expected to be a dominant driver of climate patterns during the outlook period.
Rainfall anomaly: Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa: rainfall totals are most likely to be below normal (55% chance) over the outlook period as a whole. Coastal Canterbury and the nearby plains, east Otago: rainfall totals are equally likely to be below normal (40% chance) or near normal (40% chance).
Land stress indicator: Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa: soil moisture and river flows are about equally likely to be below normal (45% chance) or near normal (40% chance). Coastal Canterbury and the nearby plains, east Otago: soil moisture and river flows are about equally likely to be below normal (45% chance) or near normal (40% chance).
What to watch next: NIWA's next Seasonal Climate Outlook, covering the quarter after October - December 2026.
Evidence & limitations
- Source
- NIWA Seasonal Climate Outlook
- Last updated
- 28 October 2026
- Data type
- forecast
- Limitations
-
- "Typical pattern" is a historical tendency, not a guarantee for the current event.
- Rainfall and land stress figures below are forecast probability statements, not measured anomalies.