The Pacific right now
The Pacific is running warm
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that begins with unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific — and ends up shifting rainfall, drought and heat around the world. This page follows the signal in three steps, using the same official data scientists use.
Every colour below is a real satellite reading of the sea surface against normal for the time of year: red is warmer, blue is colder, sage is land. El Niño's signature is a tongue of red along the equator, spreading west from South America — in a La Niña year the same stretch runs blue. Press play to watch the last two years, and touch any patch of ocean for its exact reading.
Jun 2026 month to date (through 2026-06-14) Niño 3.4 avg +1.59 °C
Evidence & limitations
- Source
- NOAA OISST v2.1 via NOAA CoastWatch ERDDAP
- Last updated
- 2026-07-04
- Data type
- observed
- Limitations
-
- Monthly values are a mean of ~6 sampled daily fields per month, not NOAA’s official monthly mean product — differences are small because SST anomalies evolve slowly, but the two are not identical.
- The most recent month is usually incomplete: OISST publishes with roughly two weeks of latency.
- 2° cells are for visual and educational use, not precise local analysis; the authoritative ENSO index remains NOAA ONI (see the ENSO status card).
Signal 1 of 3 · The ocean
Warm water is the engine
El Niño begins in the sea. Scientists watch one patch of the Pacific — the dashed "Niño 3.4" box on the map above — and track how far its temperature sits above or below normal. Sustained readings of +0.5 °C or more are the threshold for El Niño; −0.5 °C or below, La Niña. These panels show the official reading right now, and where NOAA's forecasters expect it to go next.
ENSO status
+0.48°C Neutral ONI, MAM 2026 (3-month running mean)
The signal is strengthening. Conditions are consistent with ENSO-neutral. The Niño 3.4 index has been strengthening over the last three-month period.
Evidence & limitations
- Source
- NOAA CPC / ONI
- Last updated
- 3 July 2026
- Data type
- observed
- Limitations
-
- ONI is a 3-month running mean; short-term weekly fluctuations are smoothed out.
- Classification bands follow the standard NOAA ONI scale (see docs/methodology.md).
ENSO forecast probability
El Niño Advisory issued 11 June 2026
El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.
“63% chance of very strong El Niño during November-January”
Next official update expected 9 July 2026.
Evidence & limitations
- Source
- NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
- Last updated
- 3 July 2026
- Data type
- forecast
- Limitations
-
- This is the official alert status and synopsis, not a structured probability breakdown — IRI/CPC do not publish a clean El Niño/Neutral/La Niña percentage table for free access.
- The quoted statement (if shown) is whichever specific probability the discussion happened to lead with, not necessarily a full picture across every lead time.
- Forecast uncertainty increases the further out the period.
Niño 3.4 trend
+0.48°C latest reading, 2026-MAM
Evidence & limitations
- Source
- NOAA ONI (CPC)
- Last updated
- 3 July 2026
- Data type
- observed
- Limitations
-
- Threshold bands are drawn at ±0.5 / ±1.0 / ±1.5 / ±2.0°C per the standard ONI scale.
- Recent months may be revised as more observations come in.
Signal 2 of 3 · The atmosphere
The sky has to join in
Warm water alone is not an El Niño. The atmosphere has to respond too: the trade winds that normally push warm water westward ease off, and air pressure see-saws across the Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) measures that see-saw. Only when ocean and atmosphere reinforce each other does the pattern lock in and start steering weather far beyond the tropics — this panel checks whether that is happening yet.
Atmosphere check
-24.9 Mixed SOI, Jun 2026 (monthly)
SOI is -24.9 while ONI is +0.48. These aren't clearly reinforcing each other right now — the atmospheric response is mixed rather than strongly coupled to the ocean signal.
Evidence & limitations
- Source
- Australian BOM SOI
- Last updated
- 3 July 2026
- Data type
- observed
- Limitations
-
- Coupling classification follows the rule validated against real data in docs/methodology.md.
- SOI is one indicator of atmospheric response; it does not capture the full atmospheric picture.
Signal 3 of 3 · On the ground
What it can mean where you live
This is where a planet-sized signal becomes local. El Niño does not cause any single drought or storm, but it loads the dice: historically, it has often been associated with drier conditions in eastern New Zealand and across much of eastern Australia. These cards show the current official outlook for each region.
Australia still shows placeholder data pending a sanctioned BOM data channel — see docs/data-sources.md
Regional impact — New Zealand
Typical El Niño pattern: Strong El Niño events have historically been associated with drier, windier conditions on the east coast of both islands and increased drought risk in eastern regions, alongside wetter conditions in the west.
Current observation: El Niño conditions have now been reached in the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean, according to criteria assessed by Earth Sciences New Zealand. The event remains in its early stages; impacts on New Zealand’s weather patterns are yet to be fully felt but are anticipated later in the year.
Rainfall anomaly: Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa: rainfall totals are about equally likely to be below normal (40% chance) or near normal (35% chance) for the outlook period as a whole, but there is a risk of some significant rainfall occurring early in July. Coastal Canterbury and the nearby plains, east Otago: rainfall totals are about equally likely to be below normal (40% chance) or near normal (35% chance), for the outlook period as a whole, but there is a risk of some significant rainfall occurring early in July.
Land stress indicator: Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa: soil moisture and river flows are about equally likely to be near normal (40 - 45% chance) or below normal (40 - 45% chance). Coastal Canterbury and the nearby plains, east Otago: soil moisture and river flows are about equally likely to be below normal (45% chance) or near normal (40% chance).
What to watch next: NIWA's next Seasonal Climate Outlook, covering the quarter after July - September 2026.
Evidence & limitations
- Source
- NIWA Seasonal Climate Outlook
- Last updated
- 4 July 2026
- Data type
- forecast
- Limitations
-
- "Typical pattern" is a historical tendency, not a guarantee for the current event.
- Rainfall and land stress figures below are forecast probability statements, not measured anomalies.
Regional impact — Australia
Typical El Niño pattern: Strong El Niño events have historically been associated with below-average rainfall and elevated drought and fire risk across much of eastern and southern Australia.
Current observation: Rainfall deficits are emerging across parts of the eastern states, consistent with the typical pattern for this stage of an El Niño episode.
Rainfall anomaly: Not yet available from a validated real source (placeholder figure, not a real number). BOM's website blocks all automated access — see docs/data-sources.md item 6 and docs/learnings/2026-07-04-bom-rainfall-fully-blocked.md.
Land stress indicator: not yet available
What to watch next: Whether the rainfall deficit spreads further west and how soil moisture responds heading into the drier season.
Placeholder dataEvidence & limitations
- Source
- Sample / Placeholder Data (local development only)
- Last updated
- 4 July 2026
- Data type
- interpreted
- Limitations
-
- "Typical pattern" is a historical tendency, not a guarantee for the current event.
- Rainfall and land stress figures are not yet available from a validated real source.